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By Tyler EverettShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberThe headliner in the NBA tonight pits Western Conference rivals Houston (40-24) and Denver (39-26) in the fourth regular-season meeting of the year between the current 3- and 6-seed, respectively, in the West.
The Nuggets are 2-1 vs. the Rockets this year, but these teams have not met since the Rockets won 115-101 on December 20.
The Rockets are on the second night of a back-to-back after taking down Toronto at home on Wednesday, while the Nuggets are looking to snap a two-game losing streak, including a nailbiter on the road in OKC on Tuesday night.
While Steven Adams and Fred VanVleet remain out for Houston with long-term injuries and Dorian Finney-Smith (ankle) has been ruled out, the Nuggets are expected to be close to full strength, with Aaron Gordon back in the lineup. Jamal Murray and Cameron Johnson are both listed as game-time decisions for the Nuggets, but both are expected to suit up.
How To Watch Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets
- Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Odds: Spread, ML, Total
The spread for tonight's game opened with the Nuggets as 5.5-point favorites, but Nikola Jokic and Co. are now laying at least 7 points across the board.
Best Rockets vs. Nuggets Player Prop Bets
Reed Sheppard 15+ Points (-108 at DraftKings) -- 1 unit
Sheppard's role has increased significantly in recent weeks. Tonight, he strikes us as a solid buy-low bet to bounce back from a rare off night (7 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 turnovers and 3 personal fouls in 23:35 of work) in his team's win over Toronto on Wednesday.
After logging at least 30 minutes in seven straight games from February 25 through March 8, with at least 17 points in six of those contests, Sheppard -- a 43% shooter this year, including 39% from 3-point range -- was just 2-for-10 (1-for-5 from 3) in the Rockets' 113-99 win over the Raptors last night. His individual offensive rating (61), effective field goal percentage (25%) and true shooting (32.2%) last night were all nowhere near his season-average offensive rating of 117, eFG of 54.5% and true shooting of 56.1%.
On the second night of a back-to-back, Sheppard should get plenty of looks for a Rockets squad that needs to lighten the load on Kevin Durant after the 37-year-old led his team in field-goal attempts (16), points (29) and finished second in rebounds (8) just 24 hours ago.
Including his rough go against the Rockets yesterday, Sheppard has posted a usage rate of 24 percent or higher in each of his last four games. If his role tonight is anywhere near that pronounced, he should have no trouble scoring at least 15 points.
t also helps the case for Sheppard that Utah's Keyonte George (36 points on 14-for-22 shooting), L.A.'s Austin Reaves (16 points on 6-for-11 shooting), Minnesota's Donte DiVincenzo and Anthony Edwards (38 total points on 14-for-29 shooting) and OKC's Isaiah Joe (13 points on 5-for-10 shooting) all recently put up solid numbers on efficient shooting against the Nuggets.
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Rockets vs. Nuggets Prediction, Best ATS Bets
This is a tricky game to handicap, but given what a tricky spot this is for Houston, I like the Nuggets to win this one with some room to spare. Having Aaron Gordon back is massive on both ends of the court for Denver, which nearly knocked off the Thunder in OKC earlier this week.
It's also hard to resist fading a team like Houston, which relied heavily on both Durant and Alperen Sengun, in its second game in as many nights, especially given that the 37-year-old Durant likely will have to deal with a fresh Gordon, who was a team-best +14 in 28 minutes in his second game back from his extended absence.
Meanwhile, Sengun will have a tough matchup of his own, to say the least, against Jokic.
Prediction: Nuggets to win
Rockets vs. Nuggets Best Bet Against The Spread
At full strength and/or with more rest, I'd have a hard time resisting the Rockets at +7.5, but this version of the Nuggets is a buzzsaw, especially at home (and with Johnson and Gordon potentially at full strength).
In this spot, let's roll the dice on the Nuggets not just winning, but winning big in a crucial matchup
- Nuggets -7.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
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